Conroe at 65nm will be Intel's workhorse for a good while, and is said to be around 125 to 150mm^2, so that is a good ball park. At least I would not go higher, as larger chips are unlikely, for the desktop anyway.
Edit: I also agree with Les about smaller dies. 90% of the heat on the die si coming from < 50% of its surface area. With a simulator, its probably much more evenly distributed, so a smaller simulator die then the processor being represented makes sense.
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