You are talking about apples and oranges. The stuff produced by having people on the ground is generally very good. I am sure you have seen lots on the news about intelligence failures and the need for more human based intelligence. Enough said.

I think you are in the realm of the false analogy argument. For instance in America if a couple is having a domestic dispute that gets physical the cops will normally separate the two in most states the perpetrator will spend the night in jail. If the abuse continues, the courts can enforce a separation via court order or trial and Jail of the perpetrator. No such mechanism exists in the international arena.

Why don’t we apply your same analogy to the US involvement in WW2? Why did we bother to involve ourselves in Europe’s problems…you know many Americans felt as you do about our involvement in WW2. Now you rarely hear anyone say that US involvement in WW2 was a bad policy. Why? Because look at Western Europe today. Over 50 years and no war, Why? Pax Americana, US intervention worked and the long term benefits out weighed the short term cost.

Well Kobuchi I guess you were on the wrong side of history. :)

lets see if he is capable of anything positive

indeed it was a good day, considering the past

A good day indeed... :)

How's that? Last predicion I made now pending was that the military crackdown would stop Sunnis from voting. The crackdown (e.g. turning every Fallujan into a refugee) was supposed to free Iraqis from terror so they could vote. So let's see if I was right.

Where have I been wrong, specifically?

Here is an email from a buddy of mine who volunteered to go back for a second tour...

Thought you'd all want to have first hand info of the historical event taking place today. I'm assuming the only thing you'll see tonight on the news tonight will be the blood, gore, doom & gloom. But I'll share with you that it was very uplifting to watch elderly men and women, hunched over, walking with canes, barefooted, coming out to vote for the first time EVER. It leads me to ask myself, "just how many of us would show up at the polling site in OUR neighborhoods, which had been taking incoming mortar rounds all morning?"

Hope everyone is well! I'm doing great, despite my current grid coordinate...

Love you all & Semper Fi...

KevinScott

CWO4 Kevin Scott Bera

2d Bn, 24th Marines, 24 MEU

Kobuchi you would complain about a blow job. :rolleyes:

I'm not a Bush fan due to the economics and religion, but bringing the vote to a totalitarian state is just magnificent. Expensive sure, still a monummental achievement - against the majority of the world.
Like him or not, Bush gave an object lesson in leadership.

It will be a model for removing the theocracy in Iran.

That's not an answer. You said I'm wrong, presumably about the election, but you can't say specifically what I'm wrong about. Let me respond with my best guess:

Curses. My plot to sap Iraqis of self-determination has been foiled again by those do-good Americans. But I will return in a new guise..

OK? Is that the strawman you need?

Now my turn:

You're on the wrong side of scientific fact, Lothar5150. My country has satellite imagery...

Satellite Image




You see, Lothar5150, the sky is not falling. LOL. The world stands behind Canada in our conviction. And people like you, with your apocalyptic vision...

:rolleyes:

See what I mean? You need to get a handle on this, it makes you look rabid,

or,

if you must search around looking for people to be "wrong" for you, be prepared to back up your accusation.

I too am glad the voting went as well as it did.
This doesn't change my opinion that we went in under false presences, but I am impressed that this large a part of the population did vote.
From reports I heard on the radio today (so nothing direct to quote) there was an "informal vote" in the Kurdish north - different sets of booths but set up in somewhat close proximity to the official ones. The question was, basically, "become independent or remain affiliated with Iraq?" - and "become independent" was, from first reports, leading "remain affiliated" at about ten to one. I think the person speaking (reportedly on the ground in northern Iraq) was (ex?) ambassador Moynihan. Anyone else catch this?

Oh for Christ's sakes! "Oh look, people are voting! Democracy in progress! All shall be well and all shall be well, and all manner of things shall be well!"

I am getting a bit tired of this naive, blithering stupid sentimentality. You think it's all over now? You think "democracy" has prevailed? This is just a Kodak moment in a protracted history of chaos and misery. Pose for the camera at the ballot box. Smile! Tomorrow we will be suffering again, struggling again, living in fear for our lives, getting blown to bits or shot at. Tomorrow we will still live in the ruins that were our homes. Tomorrow our lives will still be flotsam in the ocean of Western conflict investment, over twenty-five years of Western foreign policy jerking about our politics, economics, our very lives and future over a few barrels of oil.

Grow the f*ck up already. You think this is a Hollywood happy ending? This is just more conflict investment. Some of the players may have changed, but it's still the same game played over the lives and corpses of innocent people. And best thing is, play it right and we actually think it's a beautiful fairy-tale. :rolleyes:

You seem to have missed the point.
It wasn't at all clear that the folks there might even want democracy. The fact that a good number of 'em voted (and at least some of those folks must have felt that they were taking a definite risk to do so) indicates (to me) that some number of 'em might actually want some kind of democratic system (democratic in very loose terms here, not "US system" but simply that those who govern are in some way responsible to the governees).
No magic turning point. No expectation that all will be well (could all be totally lost, and, given our lack of preparation to deal with the country after a successful invasion, I'm not at all convinced that it won't be lost). Certainly no expectation that the life of an average person there is going to be any better tomorrow than it was the day before yesterday.

yes; it is the existence of the opportunity, and the apparent inclination of the general populace to participate
a long haul ahead, indeed
many a slip twixt the cup and the lip

nexxo, how many years did it take for Britain to become democratic ?
tyrants do not go peacefully, again - look at the USSR
this is a process, and a positive step was taken

consider an alternative, no one participated
then your words, and more, would be valid

Here is another email.

...Well, I'm still working and will be through the night. Caught a couple hours this afternoon, and then got up to work with the election workers again. This has been a very proud moment in my life. After all the nay saying from around the world, I watched a people risk death to vote. They came out in numbers larger than expected. The enemy tried hard to stop them, but in the end they failed and the people won. I have no idea where this election will take them, but at least for today Iraqis were a free people. Our liaison/trainer to the Iraqi Army - Guillermo Rosales- watched as the Iraqi Colonel wept when he sent his soldiers off to guard polling sites. Not because he feared for them, but because they were cheering and proudly moving off to help guard their fellow citizens.



The insurgents did try to intimidate,...hell, I should say kill the voters, but the Marines and Iraqi Army made sure it was the other way around. There was an insurgent mortar team that was lobbing shells at a voting center. Waukegan Marines found and killed them. We had other incidents, but the voters kept on coming. I sat here in the CP, and could only hear the reports from the Marines out in the field, but I was very proud of them, and happy that every Marine leaving here knows he, and those that won't come home, made a difference. Through the efforts of 2/24, not one Iraqi Citizen was seriously injured and was able to vote if he or she wanted.



You can probably tell I'm pretty elated, but this has been a great day. It's not going to stop the insurgency, but it will de-legitimize it. People will still be killed by a bunch of animals, but those animals will no longer be likened to freedom fighters, because everyone knows they fought against freedom.



God bless and Semper Fidelis,

Mark

No, you missed mine. If that is our expectation, then why all this warm fuzzy job-well-done feeling that people are expressing in this thread?

They lined up to vote not because they believe in this democracy, but because they want to believe in something, anything at all. They want hope. Anything that says that all their loss and suffering and uncertainty is not for nothing, because that thought would be intollerable.

Let's see if we are going to let them down again.

"Let's see if we are going to let them down again."

yes, the US record is truly terrible
the Kurds, and Shiites, both encouraged and then left to swing; horrible
I don't think the Kurds are going to be so gullible again (i.e. US assurances are total BS)
be interesting to see if we have the forces, and inclination, to block the Turks

but we have a history of abandoning surrogate fighters, Bay of Pigs anyone

How do you know this? I'm pretty skeptical of the war, and frankly didn't expect much of a voter turn out. Why should Iraqis want anything to do with a system that's being foisted upon them? And if they were only grudgingly interested, why should they brave any risks to have something to do with it?
I was wrong.
Now you're telling me that the Iraqis who took risks to vote didn't actually want a system that's based on voting.
I'm at least somewhat convincable - but would need a lot more than your simple flat statement.

As far as my missing your point, no I don't think so. Point to some warm-fuzzy job-well-done things I have posted here. I'm pretty sure you can't even find things like "turned the corner" in any postings in this thread.

As a BTW, I'd suggest you skip using phrases like "Grow the f*ck up already." It undermines your own arguments (to the extent you are attempting to persuade - if you're just venting it of course doesn't matter a bit). If you are just venting, that's OK by me - just not something I want to waste much time on reading or responding to.

Very good. The extra tight curfews and clampdown on travel worked great. I guess now the two-month emergency measures will be lifted, and we'll see what happens? What do you think will happen when normal freedoms are restored?

I was really disappointed by the resistance. They're out of control. Last Christmas, remember, some groups declared a unilateral Christmas ceasefire, and the ceasefire took (for the two days). That's civilised, and shows an organisation or at least a collective mind in these people that can be reasoned with. But for the elections I heard some say they'd let people vote, while others vowed to snipe and so forth (pure terrorism) so we got no plan, no reason, no discipline - a nonsense army.

An explanation:

The resistance has a lot of bad apples in its midst, and with that policy above it's not just a case of bad apples but a bad barrel, that permits rotten apples.

The resistance fighters know very well Iraqis had to register as voters when collecting their food ration cards, last month. And of course when Allawi says you're either for democracy or you're on the side of the terrorists, and he knows who registered and who did not, people will be doubly apprehensive. That some resistance leaders and even politicians could then tell those people to boycott the process, it's inconsiderate. Then voting day again people have to go to the polls to pick up their monthly ration. Nearly all Iraqis have depended on rations since sanctions, and as rations are to be phased out soon we can imagine the first to go might be those people who didn't pick up their ration cards on January 30th. Some are saying they'll kill you if you go... well that's terrorism, and as a father I think I would go anyway. Very disappointed in the resistance. Leave bread alone.

To Bush it is. He puts on a brave face and says this is really what he planned all along. But check the timeline of foreign meddling in Iraq's politics and you'll see the Americans got dragged along this path and not without some low kicks like ordering the routine census halted. The real hand behind this election is some reclusive old Iranian who lives in a Najaf alley, Ayatollah Sistani. His fatwah that the constitution can only be written by the elected (not US-picked assembly), prevailed. His fatwah against the next US plan for indirect, US-vetted, "caucus" elections, also prevailed. When there was a lull in progress, the Ayatollah asked all good Shiites to show their numbers, and they prevailed. And when the professional stall-guy Bremer tried to sink Iraqi democracy into a bureaucratic, internationalised, UN-commissioned process, Sistani went direct to Kofi Annan and said he wanted elections and no more games. Now all good Shiites have voted of course, and for Sistani's slate, because this hermit who refuses to meet with the occupiers (they're unclean) issued another fatwah that Iraqis must vote. The Shiites prevailed. Bush may put on a brave face for the cameras, but it won't be his portrait mounted on every wall in Basra, where the moment counts.

Iraqis still have a long struggle ahead, and if all goes well Americans will puff up and call it their victory even as the last soldier boards the last helicopter over the vanishing Green Zone. Warfare is about making the enemy do what you want.

True. All hands play divide and conquer, and only the Kurds are wise to that... among themselves that is! We'll see the US trying harder now to shift attacks on their own forces to Iraqis fighting each other. Ultimately Iraqis would take all the casualties, and Americans only shell from their hideouts or bomb from safe altitude. Then the beleaguered Iraqi government will "invite" Americans to stay and help, year after year, and the US will "help" on certain conditions. Pork barrel & economic serfdom. Keep euro out of oil. That would be a nice arrangement for the American people, ugly as it is, it would be in American interests. But I think something will scuttle that plan.

That is not what I am saying at all. I explained in my previous post why they are voting. They have lost and suffered too much to have to think that it was all for nothing. That thought would be unbearable. So they want to believe in this process. They want to hope. And any glimpse, any straw will do when you are desperate. I mean, what have they got left to lose, right?

How do I know this? I make a living out of analysing, explaining and predicting human behaviour, particularly where it concerns trauma, loss and grief. You could say it's an informed judgement. So far I have not been wrong yet.

I was talking about the tone of the recent posts in general, not yours in particular.

Yes, I was expressing my frustration, but that was two posts ago. You don't have to respond to it. Just let it go, dude...

Some of my relatives got screwed on that beach, you roped me into that one Bill :dome: ....I agree with you and it is sin upon our heads that we did this all though the cold war. It was refreshing to hear that the President had a "come to Jesus moment" about our past foreign policy actions. I think this president is less a politician and more a leader and not apt to change with the blowing winds of opinion polls. I'm with you I don’t agree with much of his religious policies and some of his economics are all wrong but he is not a hypocrite about supporting democracy.

Kobuchi...you are small man 卑劣な小びと性交あなた自身は行く

You feel dumping that in another people's language makes it OK.

他の自由のための彼らの生命を与える海兵隊員についてのうそを広める卑劣な小びとのための適切な応答 それを経験したが、ちょうど臆病者であるように戦闘述べている

How I define cowardice, or bravery. Your tactic now illustrates cowardice, not to say it isn't effective. Why don't you come out and post openly, that would be brave... :p ;)

You seem not to accept that in war, cowardice wins. Modern forces have institutionalised and perfected cowardice so completely that Marines like yourself wouldn't make the connection even camouflaged and slinking on your bellies under starlight for the chance to shoot an enemy in the spine. You'd just think well that's not especially brave, but it worked, and think no more in that uncomfortable direction.

I'm not defending or attacking cowardice on moral grounds. There's a muddle you'll have to work out or rationalise on your own, or not, it's not my problem. It's easy for me because I'm a neutral observer. If I rate some act by any warring party against another cowardly or brave I mean was it effective not was it ethical - in war these things rarely coincide.

Zurui chibi, have you ever been in combat?

As in fighting on roughly equal terms? Symmetrical combat against a comparable force? No. I wouldn't fight that way with weapons (besides hockey sticks :D ). That's just gambling with lives, and I sincerely hope you're never sent as a Marine on a penny-toss operation. If you're talking about war then what is this, WWI? You know what happens to guys in trenches ready to die for their country. There's your bravery.

Have you been trained to shoot a guy without first revealing your position? Ever seen a howitzer?

Is it so hard to grasp that IEDs are effective because they're cowardly?

If you don't get it, I'm sorry for the baggage.

Zurui chibi, then your answer is no you haven't been in combat. I am a combat veteran. You’re the one who just doesn't get it.