Pro/Forums - View Single Post

Joe · 01-30-2002, 02:49 PM

Yeh a Quantum has been tested, I said that, but the scale of the test was VERY small in all cases.

the next evolution of the CPU's is already set in stone... its 64bit RISC or RISC/CISC cores. There will still be X86, there will still be Silicon, there will still be heat issues. But what you will see is cores that are very much like what the CRAY machines use.

These will be multiple, parallel, lower power cores in one CPU case. This is also how the REAL SMT implementation will be from AMD and Intel, basicly 2 - 4 cores on one chip

The technologies you meantioned (Quantum, Bio) are giant leaps that will take place starting in 10 years. Till then it will just be a series of small steps or shuffles forward and backward. I mean if you wanted a cpu that was very efficient and very powerful, why didnt the Alpha succeed? Simple... you must retain backward compatability. Which means what every is brought out will have an X86 subset, with the new RISC sets.

Intels EPIC set SUCKS. It needs FAR too much optimization to do anything slightly fast.

While you are looking at the future as speeding up I am looking at it to slow to a crawl. I think we will hit 4Ghz, and level off big time. At those speeds WHO needs to upgrade... there is NOTHING today like email, and web surfing that taxes a 1Ghz CPU.. at 4Ghz anything short of realtime photorealistic 3D rendering, wouldnt use it.

I think the graphics cards is where you are going to see new developments happening, cause thats an area that could really use it.

It was so much easier back in the day when you know the P2 and P3 were going to come out in the next few years. But I have to tell ya, the next fee years now looks DAMN booring.. I mean really when I see people clocking P4's to 3Ghz it does NOTHING for me...

speeds over 2Ghz are rather pointless now as the CPU's are so much faster than the memory systems ( especialy Rambust with its high latency) that there is almost no noticeable performance gain over a 1Ghz CPU.

What Do I see for the next 5 years? - 64bit x86 RISC/CISC cores. Cause Intel will go to that, and AMD is already planning on that. For Enterprise stuff, 64bit RISC will remain the same as its been for the last 10 - 15 years. Why screw with something that works?

01-30-2002, 02:49 PM	#19
Joe The Pro/Life Support System Join Date: Dec 1999 Location: Denver, CO Posts: 4,041	Yeh a Quantum has been tested, I said that, but the scale of the test was VERY small in all cases. the next evolution of the CPU's is already set in stone... its 64bit RISC or RISC/CISC cores. There will still be X86, there will still be Silicon, there will still be heat issues. But what you will see is cores that are very much like what the CRAY machines use. These will be multiple, parallel, lower power cores in one CPU case. This is also how the REAL SMT implementation will be from AMD and Intel, basicly 2 - 4 cores on one chip The technologies you meantioned (Quantum, Bio) are giant leaps that will take place starting in 10 years. Till then it will just be a series of small steps or shuffles forward and backward. I mean if you wanted a cpu that was very efficient and very powerful, why didnt the Alpha succeed? Simple... you must retain backward compatability. Which means what every is brought out will have an X86 subset, with the new RISC sets. Intels EPIC set SUCKS. It needs FAR too much optimization to do anything slightly fast. While you are looking at the future as speeding up I am looking at it to slow to a crawl. I think we will hit 4Ghz, and level off big time. At those speeds WHO needs to upgrade... there is NOTHING today like email, and web surfing that taxes a 1Ghz CPU.. at 4Ghz anything short of realtime photorealistic 3D rendering, wouldnt use it. I think the graphics cards is where you are going to see new developments happening, cause thats an area that could really use it. It was so much easier back in the day when you know the P2 and P3 were going to come out in the next few years. But I have to tell ya, the next fee years now looks DAMN booring.. I mean really when I see people clocking P4's to 3Ghz it does NOTHING for me... speeds over 2Ghz are rather pointless now as the CPU's are so much faster than the memory systems ( especialy Rambust with its high latency) that there is almost no noticeable performance gain over a 1Ghz CPU. What Do I see for the next 5 years? - 64bit x86 RISC/CISC cores. Cause Intel will go to that, and AMD is already planning on that. For Enterprise stuff, 64bit RISC will remain the same as its been for the last 10 - 15 years. Why screw with something that works? __________________ Joe - I only take this hat off for one thing... ProCooling archive curator and dusty skeleton.