From what I've seen on forums (totally unscientific), on AMD processors, a overvolting of .3V reduces life expectancy to about 1.5 Years when temperatures average around 50C (2.05 on a palomino, 1.9 or thereabouts for TBreds). Lower temps from watercooling and phase change cooling tend to reduce that effect a bit.
Two things you failed to account for in your example was the downward march of CPU prices per speed index, and the intangible cost benefit of having a faster machine immediately. The example should be:
One 2400+ now for $200 OR
One 1700+ now for $50 (at 2400+ speeds) and a 2700+ for $50 in 1.5 years.
In the end, you're ahead in every category, unless the hassle of swapping chips is not worth the extra money, in which case you buy the highest speed you can afford, and leave it stock, though this will end up being a much more expensive solution.
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