asuming your temp measuring devices are accurate and somewhat consistent, i would say that one reason (i dont have anything to back this up with) is that the rate at which they remove heat is not linear; while one may remove lower amounts of heat better, as the rate of heat production climbs the watercoolers abitility to remove heat exceeds that of the aircooler. again, i have nothing to back this up with, this is just a guess.
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