How big is the watercooling scene these days?

[HAL-9000]

Anyone have any idea how many waterblocks are installed out there in the world? Or how fast the industry is growing?

When I started paying attention to this new kind of cooling was like two years ago. And there were two makes that I knew of: Swiftech and DangerDen. It was a niche business for hardcore overclockers like us.

Since then, the watercooling scene has just exploded it seems. Now the big Asian mass-marketers are getting into it (Zalman, Thermaltake) and Koolance seems to be growing fast. So the cheap end of this business seems to be doing well Any idea how big the market is now?

[pHaestus]

Well we get about 12 unique visitors per week (up from 7 this time last year) so the market seems to be expanding

[AngryAlpaca]

Whoa! I thought it was tiny! Zalman, Koolance, and Thermalright are not the cheap end...

[jaydee]

Originally Posted by Angry
Alpaca

Zalman, Koolance, and Thermalright are not the cheap end...

Only on the performance side, not the cost side.. The market is very small. If it quadrupled it would still be small. IMO it seems to be slowing down a bit. I see alot of business going under or stop selling water cooling gear lately.

[HAL-9000]

Originally Posted by AngryAlpaca

Whoa! I thought it was tiny! Zalman, Koolance, and Thermalright are not the cheap end...

Maybe I am being a little to cruel with Zalman. They do make some nice, expensive, and interesting products for the watercooling scene. They also make that fanless kilobuck case. However, I stand by my assertion that Thermaltake is cheap. Thermalright makes nice air-coolers, but they aren't in the watercooling scene that I know of.

But Thermaltake is kinda cheap with their Aquarius "solutions." I guess they are quiet alternatives to stock air-cooling, but compared to "good" water-cooling, or even high end air cooling like a Swifty or the aforementioned Thermalright 'sinks, they are low performance. Ditto for Koolance, especially their all-in-one water-cooled cases.

But you would think water-cooling is getting bigger, not smaller. Physics is undeniable with where these processors are going as far as power consumption, total heat output, and especially heat intensity per square centimeter. On that spec, the power intensity per unit area, it just about scales at the same rate as Moore's Law. Eventually air coolers aren't going to cut it. Look at the new GForce, its air cooler is freakishly huge compared to a stock Coppermine HSF of yore. And it consumes insane power. So water-cooling is definitely the future for the industry I think.

[jaydee]

Originally Posted by HAL-9000

But you would think water-cooling is getting bigger, not smaller. Physics is undeniable with where these processors are going as far as power consumption, total heat output, and especially heat intensity per square centimeter. On that spec, the power intensity per unit area, it just about scales at the same rate as Moore's Law. Eventually air coolers aren't going to cut it. Look at the new GForce, its air cooler is freakishly huge compared to a stock Coppermine HSF of yore. And it consumes insane power. So water-cooling is definitely the future for the industry I think.

Not really. OEM's (the one's that define the market) will demand the CPU's be able to be air cooled. CPU design is still in it's VERY early stages of tech. It will get worst before it gets better though but CPU's will have to get over 200watts before air is no longer an option (air coolers are not even close to being perfected yet either). By then they will have figured out a way to make CPU's run faster and cooler. Intel is already under serious pressure to do so. Also look at NoteBook CPU's. They run nearly as fast as regular CPU's at half the power usage. The catch is it costs more.

[HAL-9000]

Originally Posted by jaydee116

Not really. OEM's (the one's that define the market) will demand the CPU's be able to be air cooled. CPU design is still in it's VERY early stages of tech. It will get worst before it gets better though but CPU's will have to get over 200watts before air is no longer an option (air coolers are not even close to being perfected yet either). By then they will have figured out a way to make CPU's run faster and cooler. Intel is already under serious pressure to do so. Also look at NoteBook CPU's. They run nearly as fast as regular CPU's at half the power usage. The catch is it costs more.

I imagine air-cooling will get surplanted by some liquid flow when the liquid flow solution is cheaper than whatever high-tech air solution will work at that point. But that day is coming, unless we find a new technical foundation for chips beyond silicon. Boron doped type IIa diamond films via CVD process is looking promising. Perhaps that will work. Superconductors would be cool, literally though, they need LN2!

[jaydee]

Originally Posted by HAL-9000

I imagine air-cooling will get surplanted by some liquid flow when the liquid flow solution is cheaper than whatever high-tech air solution will work at that point. But that day is coming, unless we find a new technical foundation for chips beyond silicon. Boron doped type IIa diamond films via CVD process is looking promising. Perhaps that will work. Superconductors would be cool, literally though, they need LN2!

Your thinking to narrow minded. From what I have read the developers are thinking a little more optimistically. They want a PC the size of a cell phone 10 times faster than any normal computer today. With nano biological tech they are developing it will be a reality. Think outside of what they are doing/capable of today.

Or maybe I am over optimistic but I feel there will be major changes in tech in our life time. We will see though. Look how far we have came in the last 50 years. CPU have been around what 30 years maybe? They are just getting started with the development of them.

[HAL-9000]

Originally Posted by jaydee116

Your thinking to narrow minded. From what I have read the developers are thinking a little more optimistically. They want a PC the size of a cell phone 10 times faster than any normal computer today. With nano biological tech they are developing it will be a reality. Think outside of what they are doing/capable of today.

Or maybe I am over optimistic but I feel there will be major changes in tech in our life time. We will see though. Look how far we have came in the last 50 years. CPU have been around what 30 years maybe? They are just getting started with the development of them.

Ever since the transistor was invented, the improvements in physical electronics technology have come from making the transistors smaller, and smaller, and smaller. And that's about it, really. LCD's are new I guess. The last big physical change in the formulation of semiconductors was the adoption of gallium arsenide. I have heard a lot about bio-computers, photonic switched computers, etc. Quantum qubit computers would radically alter what we define as a "computer" and make encryption incredibly secure. I can barely understand qubit switching, it goes to the heart of very strange quantum mechanics principles such as Heisenberg Uncertainty, DeBroglie wavelength...I do think outside the box on these issues. Especially about superconducting switches. ("cryotrons" is what they are called in SC lingo) Don't get me wrong, I dig your optimism about the future.

But so far, the cynic about progress in me has been more right than wrong. What has come to market so far has been taking silicon transistors, shrinking them, and cramming more on the same 400mm wafers Intel and the like have been using for more than fifteen years. That is the benchmark of the business model: yield per wafer. And they have scaled in power consumption and heat output in a very linear fashion over the same period of time. Laptop processors consume less power because they are "smart." I.E., they throttle down clock frequency and voltage on the fly to maintain the battery. I mean, if I'm only running Outlook, then I don't need three billion clock cycles a second. But that's about it. The physical technology is the same though. Look at a heatsink for a Pentium and compare it to a heatsink for a P-IV, big difference. Heck, 386'es didn't even have a heatsink!

[jaydee]

Originally Posted by HAL-9000

Ever since the transistor was invented, the improvements in physical electronics technology have come from making the transistors smaller, and smaller, and smaller. And that's about it, really. LCD's are new I guess. The last big physical change in the formulation of semiconductors was the adoption of gallium arsenide. I have heard a lot about bio-computers, photonic switched computers, etc. Quantum qubit computers would radically alter what we define as a "computer" and make encryption incredibly secure. I can barely understand qubit switching, it goes to the heart of very strange quantum mechanics principles such as Heisenberg Uncertainty, DeBroglie wavelength...I do think outside the box on these issues. Especially about superconducting switches. ("cryotrons" is what they are called in SC lingo) Don't get me wrong, I dig your optimism about the future.

But so far, the cynic about progress in me has been more right than wrong. What has come to market so far has been taking silicon transistors, shrinking them, and cramming more on the same 400mm wafers Intel and the like have been using for more than fifteen years. That is the benchmark of the business model: yield per wafer. And they have scaled in power consumption and heat output in a very linear fashion over the same period of time. Laptop processors consume less power because they are "smart." I.E., they throttle down clock frequency and voltage on the fly to maintain the battery. I mean, if I'm only running Outlook, then I don't need three billion clock cycles a second. But that's about it. The physical technology is the same though. Look at a heatsink for a Pentium and compare it to a heatsink for a P-IV, big difference. Heck, 386'es didn't even have a heatsink!

One thing your over looking is a peice of junk OEM heat sink will handle 80watts with no problem and keep the computer operation without fault. Remember the majority of users don't care about over clocking and what not. They just want something that works. If a standard OEM heatsink can handle todays computers then our current after market heat sinks can easily handle tomorrow's. Like I said 200watts should be easily cooled by air. It will be sometime, if ever, CPU's will get that warm. IMO anyway.

[HAL-9000]

Originally Posted by jaydee116

One thing your over looking is a peice of junk OEM heat sink will handle 80watts with no problem and keep the computer operation without fault. Remember the majority of users don't care about over clocking and what not. They just want something that works. If a standard OEM heatsink can handle todays computers then our current after market heat sinks can easily handle tomorrow's. Like I said 200watts should be easily cooled by air. It will be sometime, if ever, CPU's will get that warm. IMO anyway.

Piece of junk OEM heatsinks do dissipate that much heat. I personally don't think watercooling will become a OEM type mainstream solution necessarily because of thermal stress, at least at first. Average user doesn't care about heat or overclocking, but ten fans in the 'puter is going to irritate the housewife running Create A Card! I think the idea of "quiet" is going to become an issue before "heat" does to the soccer-mom and her Dell XPS junk.

But, you are especially right about one thing, namely HSF tech is still pretty primitive. I have always been impressed by the Shuttle Micros and their heatpipe trick. The new BTX form-factor is going to facillitate that kind of heatsink, namely taking the heat of the sink and moving it to a big radiator with a slow moving 120mm fan.

But the other issue is power output density per unit area. Think about it, a P-IV Presoctt, according to Intel, is designed for ~100w output typical heat. The heatspreader on the chip is approx. 900mm squared. A square meter is 1000,000 mm square. So the equivilant heat output from a square meter at the same power denisty is like a hundred kilowatts! That's almost a hundred and thirty horsepower in equivilant work. We're starting to approach the same thermal "density" as heat engine with that number. A P-IV Prescott is on .09nm process. The next gen will probably be on .065 process, which reduces the die area on the chip to about 30 percent the size of the .09nm chip, assuming identical transistor count. So even if power output is halved on that hypothetical chip, the thermal density of the die is going to increase somewhat, ~40%.

This is what's been happening all through the last decade. Eventually the thermal conductivity of even silver is going become a barrier, it just can't suck enough heat off such a small area. That is why I think boron doped diamond is going to be the next big step if air-cooled chips are to continue. The thermal conductivity of the stuff is around 8 times that of silver (it is the best heat conductor known) and can take temps of more than 2000C. Or of course, a different kind of fluid instead of air cooling the silicon, like water .Just my opinion I guess. Great discussion, though!

[AngryAlpaca]

The next gen will probably be on .065 process, which reduces the die area on the chip to about 30 percent the size of the .09nm chip, assuming identical transistor count. So even if power output is halved on that hypothetical chip, the thermal density of the die is going to increase somewhat, ~40%.

If they intend to get to 65 nanometers, they're going to have to change something. 90nm has been a major failure, and I think here is where we stop.

The Aquarius II is only cheap now that it is drastically outdated. The other things are expensive as hell (compared to custom or air) and not that great.

8 times better than silver's conductivity is nothing, comparitively. Heat pipes are the way to go, if processors do keep getting hotter (put that in your pipe [heehee...] and smoke it, Cooligy)

[HAL-9000]

Originally Posted by AngryAlpaca

If they intend to get to 65 nanometers, they're going to have to change something. 90nm has been a major failure, and I think here is where we stop.

The Aquarius II is only cheap now that it is drastically outdated. The other things are expensive as hell (compared to custom or air) and not that great.

8 times better than silver's conductivity is nothing, comparitively. Heat pipes are the way to go, if processors do keep getting hotter (put that in your pipe [heehee...] and smoke it, Cooligy)

.09nm is what Prescott uses, and AMD will have to go to it if they want to keep making their chips faster. It's just physics. And I think they will probably shrink the process to perhaps .009nm or so before they hit serious electron leakage issues...IMO

But diamond? that kind of thermal conductivity is amazing. Can you imagine a waterblock made out of the stuff? Someone steal the Hope Diamond from the Smithsonian, and get some diamond tipped drill bits STAT, we be MODDI'N!

[pHaestus]

90 nm (0.09 um) not 0.09nm (90 pm)

[HAL-9000]

Originally Posted by pHaestus

90 nm (0.09 um) not 0.09nm (90 pm)

Pardon me, beer consumption this evening has been "spirited" you could say. But the thermal specs I quoted are relatively accurate, right? Thanks for the correction! Take all previous chip specs I quoted on the thread and times by a thousand please! Thanks Phaestus

[AngryAlpaca]

90nm, and they are at the same speed, with MUCH more heat. They're stopping, unless Dell assumes a position of apathy about heat (they won't)

[jaydee]

Check this article out at OC'ers.
http://www.overclockers.com/tips00579/

Also be sure the read the articles it links to.

The move is believed to represent a significant shift in the development plans of the world's largest chip maker and stems from its desire to build chips that are powerful without generating excessive amounts of heat, the person said.

[HAL-9000]

Originally Posted by jaydee116

Check this article out at OC'ers.
http://www.overclockers.com/tips00579/

Also be sure the read the articles it links to.

I see where you guys are coming from...especially with the OC article you linked. Good read. However I do believe Intel will be running ~4Ghz on .09um process by the end of this year. And the business will reach 10Ghz by about 2007, and begin slowing down in cycles. Multi-core has been talked about via IBM since the Apple G3 days. A lot of rumors about the G4 back in the day suggested thats what the G4 would be....a multi-core G3 on-a-chip.

Anyhoo, I just happened to link to your CustomCom's Babesite. OK, OK, this isn't relevant...but I could not help but notice you really don't have anything there except this really nice picture of this really pretty girl...who's the girl?

[joemac]

From the link: http://www.overclockers.com/tips00579/

“In short, a 6GHz processor won't be a 6GHz processor; it will be two 3s”.

Just think about water cooling that bad Daddy. If present trends with water blocks continue one day we might see a water block with four nipples requiring two pumps to operate. Anyway those processor if they make it to mass market are at least two years away (my guess). Then again there could a major break through with the “power leakage” issue but I would not hold my breath at this point

[joemac]

Originally Posted by HAL-9000

Anyhoo, I just happened to link to your CustomCom's Babesite. OK, OK, this isn't relevant...but I could not help but notice you really don't have anything there except this really nice picture of this really pretty girl...who's the girl?

Yeah nice I believe its Estella warren

http://www.superiorpics.com/estella_...pictures2.html

[leejsmith]

this is a little off topic but interesting.

from overclockers.au

A few weeks ago I went to an ATI technology briefing for their X800 product. I asked Daniel Taranovsky, who was presenting the technical info, about the X800's power requirements - it only has a single molex 12V connector. Apparently the card will run fine without the extra power connected, unlike the R9700/R9800 which will refuse to boot. Only when you really stress the card does it need the connector. Obviously you're going to leave it plugged in all the time, but it's an indicator of the efficiency of the new GPU.

One other thing I mentioned to Daniel was the possibility of using the GPU's power to supplement the CPU. I remember a couple of years ago there was some talk of a Linux driver for this - I don't know what stage of development it's up to now - but I explained how it seems silly to have a powerful GPU sitting idle on the graphics card while, for example, the CPU is working to the limit in an excel spreadsheet or similar. Having worked in financial IT for a few years, I've seen certain financial models that took literally hours to calculate. Imagine if you could hand some of the work over to your video card processor. You could see the benefits for Folding@HOME or even shorter-timeframe tasks like compression or encryption. Daniel was very interested in this idea and didn't think it would be particularly hard to implement. Should we be keeping an eye out for this feature in a future Windows driver?

the top end gpu's are just as powerful as some cpu's and we pay a lot of money for them to only work hard when we play games. So i think this would be a good feature.

[Boli]

Liquid cooling will allways be on the far end of the scale, normal users don't CARE about it all unless it works, but there will ALLWAYS be someone to push along the bounderies improving it all.

Water cooling will NOT hit the main stream unless it is developed far enough so that it can run for 3 years without a fault and no-one looking after it in a server mahcine and STILL give you peace of mnd.

Watercooling is only expanding now because of the "relative" slowdown in computer speed. How long have we been staring at the 3.2 GhZ intel chip as the fastest on the market. the "flashy" speed has slowed down for the time being but people are stilll thinking along the mhz minds.

People are finding out that investing in a watercooling system you can run that fast chip even faster and the peple who normally buy the fastest chip on the market as soon as it comes out are taking the bait. this also explains the rise in overclocking

when the next mhz race hots up again (or perhaps TRUE FSB race is the one to watch now i.e. 200 not 400 or intels lie about 800) people will move away from liquid cooling as what is the point of running all that expensive gear to run a 3.2ghz chip at 3.8ghz when you can buy a much faster and bettr (64 bit) chip that only needs a HSF to keep it running.

I think at the end of all this ride the market for watercooling would have grown and given more respect than at the start of it but it will be lower than today, I have a feeling we havejust passed the peak and anyone who wants a WC system has bought one but with the new technology planned in recent months (socket 939 everyone is waiting for), the demand will drop sharply.

[jaydee]

Originally Posted by HAL-9000

Anyhoo, I just happened to link to your CustomCom's Babesite. OK, OK, this isn't relevant...but I could not help but notice you really don't have anything there except this really nice picture of this really pretty girl...who's the girl?

The forums is where the content is. I leave it up to the users to add stuff.

[AngryAlpaca]

I see where you guys are coming from...especially with the OC article you linked. Good read. However I do believe Intel will be running ~4Ghz on .09um process by the end of this year. And the business will reach 10Ghz by about 2007, and begin slowing down in cycles.

Haven't you just witnessed the collapse? Intel doesn't even believe that anymore. AMD doesn't. IBM doesn't. The speed race has ended, as it's more expensive to get power by shrinking and ramping now than making fundamental changes. Intel's Centrino is much more important than the Prescott, although it can't get near the speeds... AMD probably saw their rising power draw and decided to fix it (or they saw that their processor can't be shrunk and ramped) and thus switched to 64 bit. Better, not faster. Also, if processors get much hotter, we'll need to do a variety of things. We'll need bigger power supplies, and more efficient power regulators. Motherboards will have to be able to take much more heat, and so the traditional PCB might not be useful. Multiple cores will require all that stuff as well, although less cooling per CPU.

Heatpipes are ultimately what will stop water from becoming mainstream, in my opinion at least.

[DeadEye]

Originally Posted by AngryAlpaca

Heatpipes are ultimately what will stop water from becoming mainstream, in my opinion at least.

They are now already heavily in evidence in the SFF and mobile marketplace. The shuttle SFF's are an example, it has the ICE system as they call it.
Many people heavily into overclocking etc have had little success in improving on it by fitting conventional HSF's. OK the shuttle is limited in space to get the huge ones in but does anyone really want a 1kg weight bolted on to their mobo's.
Adding dual fans in push pull to the ICE system makes a big improvement at low cost, with improvements in design to the 'radiator' by more closer fins etc and the addition of more pipes, this could cope with a lot more watts than is currently used.

The Zalman case uses this technology of course too, but I think falls down in having too much 'still air' in their design.