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#576 | |
Cooling Savant
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Surf City USA
Posts: 433
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There is an interesting article in the May/June issue of Foreign Affairs, called The Global Baby Bust (Phillip Longman). Longman's major premise is that the world population growth is actually now on the backside of the curve. He makes a very good argument based on hard data. Some of his ideas on China's long-term economic growth are interesting, basically they have only about 20 years of sustained economic growth then their population will dramatically decline thus dramatically shrinking there economy. He sites the ratio of men to women in China. Most interesting is his view of the EU. He shows that countries like France are "living dead" because the average age of their native populations are past their productive years and going into retirement. Moreover, that the younger populations of African and ME coming into EU countries are not highly skilled. It is a very interesting read. One that changed my perspective on a few long held assumptions of our world. |
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#577 | |
Cooling Savant
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: USA - Boston area
Posts: 798
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Oh and way, way back at the beginning of this thread, on Phaestus' mention of "the Jesus party" I found myself thinking of his "If This Goes On" (revolution against a theocracy in the once-US). Interesting that the Marines should read Troopers. Too bad about the movie. Of course, beyond eye candy, the point Verhoeven was making was about totalitarian societies - which BillA's sterilization fits right into. So much for being SF literate. Recently, I've been wondering if the best thing might be to try to organize Iraq into states/regions/whatever and let them decide if they want to stay together. Why should we impose a British-made border on them? The Turks'll have a fit over Kurdistan, the Iranians will try to absorb the south, but wouldn't this actually give the Sunnis less reason to fight. They've lost their control of the country and, with democracy, are facing a tyrany of the majority (something Dems here in the US might understand... :-)) |
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#578 |
CoolingWorks Tech Guy Formerly "Unregistered"
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Posts: 2,371.493,106
Posts: 4,440
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re Iraq
the probable end point |
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#579 | ||
Cooling Savant
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Surf City USA
Posts: 433
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![]() ![]() The movie did suck, I was very disappointed. However, it is rare to have a movie come close to a book in terms of depth. Quote:
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#580 | |
Cooling Savant
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: FL
Posts: 787
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![]() Tell me your joking. Who would be in charge of deciding when someone's service is paid? What would be enough service to have the right to procreate turned on? What would it take for this system to evolve into a way to prevent descent against government and popular opinion? "Person X has displayed signs of "un-patriotism", which leads us to believe that he is not appreciative of his great government that gives him lots and lots of freedom. In order to to prevent him from corrupting the future generation, his chip shall be turned on. Furthermore, in order to instill appreciation for his great great government that grants him lots and lots of freedom, he will be sent to a special camp where he will perform service to his nation until he has realized how good his government is. This is, of course, all for his own good, as well as the good of his fellow nation"
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When you do things right, people won't be sure youv'e done anything at all. Looking to buy/trade for used Deep Fryer and Vacume Pack Sealer. |
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#581 |
CoolingWorks Tech Guy Formerly "Unregistered"
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Posts: 2,371.493,106
Posts: 4,440
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hey, better put some extra features in the silicon
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Cooling Savant
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: USA - Boston area
Posts: 798
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#583 | |||
Cooling Savant
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Surf City USA
Posts: 433
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Here is a link to the list if you are curious. Quote:
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#584 |
Cooling Neophyte
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Texas
Posts: 28
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But if we start dividing up Iraq into cultural zones, we would be shooting ourselves in the foot by setting a precedent we wouldn't necessarily want to follow (in the Balkans).
We need to develop nationalism on a national scale, not reduce the nation to suit its current cultural divisions.
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#585 |
Cooling Neophyte
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: England, Bournemouth
Posts: 34
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it would basicaly be like northen ireland and ireland.... and look that has now been going on for ages!
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Master Blaster Project How to make your pc in to a MONSTER ---------------------------- |
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#586 | |
Cooling Savant
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Surf City USA
Posts: 433
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See my point ![]() Evarus-That mess seems more a classic issue of "Haves and Have-nots" vice a real cultural divide. Honestly, the whole Catholic and Protestant thing seems to be a mask for what are now real economic problems. |
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#587 | |
Cooling Neophyte
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Texas
Posts: 28
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The main reason we(US) are able to do this is the fact that we are nearly devoid of single generation oppressors/oppressees ( IE There isn't anyone who has been signifcantly oppressed in their generation now living side by side with their real or imagined oppressors.) The hardest part of Nation building is the developement and maintenance of trust between the different cultures. The only way to help this along is free press without the biases of the west (Fox News, CBS), or the mid-east (Al Jazeera, Al Arabia). Unfortunately, sensationalism seems to be the only thing that sells these days. |
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#588 | ||
Cooling Savant
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Surf City USA
Posts: 433
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I agree with you that in the case of Iraq maintaining the nation state of Iraq is in everyone’s best interest. Further, the average Iraqi sees this as well. However, there are some cases, visa vi, Yugoslavia where maintaining a nation state is imposable and new boarders need to be drawn. Quote:
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#590 | |
Cooling Savant
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: BC, Canada
Posts: 313
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There really were irregularities, that was plain to foreign observers. ![]() ![]() Ah well, power to the astroturf. The photographers love it. |
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#591 | |
Cooling Savant
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Surf City USA
Posts: 433
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#592 |
Cooling Savant
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: USA - Boston area
Posts: 798
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I hope you're having a good thanksgiving, in spite of being so far from home...
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#593 | |
Cooling Savant
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Surf City USA
Posts: 433
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#594 | |
Cooling Savant
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: BC, Canada
Posts: 313
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Example: Aljazeera: Lebanese march to back Syrian troops Contrast Ukraine's city of orange tents. The Bush policy regarding people power is "consistent" - the voices inharmonious with his interests aren't heard. The majority of Iraqis surveyed by a CNN/ABC News sponsored Gallup poll responded yes the US and its allies should leave immediately, even if it means the security situation will deteriorate. A nihilist majority? Then there are the optimists who believe the situation will improve after US forces leave. Is the Bush admin "speaking up" about the overwhelming popular will of all those people? On the contrary, it confidently predicts the elected government of Iraq "will invite" US forces to remain. As for his own own shaky support, President Bush observes, "When you win, there is a feeling that people have spoken and embraced your point of view", and vows, "I've earned capital in this election and I'm going to spend it". Imagine if Yanukovych had claimed such endorsement at his own election. |
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#595 | ||
Cooling Savant
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Surf City USA
Posts: 433
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Let us look at some intellectually honest ground truth per Gallup. Gallup, in partnership with CNN and USA Today, conducted 3,444 70-minute, in-home, in-person interviews with a nationally representative sample of Iraqis in 350 separate locations throughout the country in late March and early April 2004. The resulting data offer a wealth of insight on the current climate of opinion among Iraqis nationwide. "While 61% of all Iraqis believe that Saddam Hussein's ouster was "worth" any hardships they have personally suffered since the invasion, opinion is sharply divided on whether the country itself is better off. Forty-two percent believe the country is in a better situation than before the invasion (31% "somewhat better off," 11% "much better off"), but nearly as many (39%) hold a contrary assessment (24% "somewhat worse off," 15% "much worse off"). Similarly, the third of Iraqis (33%) who say the coalition invasion of Iraq has "done more good than harm" are offset by a larger proportion (46%) who say that thus far, the invasion has "done more harm than good." Furthermore, sentiment often divides sharply along ethnic and sectarian lines. For example, members of Iraq's Kurdish minority are overwhelmingly likely (87%) to view the country as better off now (somewhat: 51%, much: 36%). However, only a third of Iraq's ethnic Arabs (33%) share this positive appraisal (somewhat better off: 27%, much better off: 5%). Similarly, perspectives and perceptions in overwhelmingly Sunni areas* can differ dramatically from those in strongly Shiite areas**. One particularly stark example is the fact that nearly three-quarters (74%) of those in overwhelmingly Shiite provinces and neighborhoods believe that the ouster of Hussein was "worth" any subsequent hardships, while only about a quarter (28%) of those in heavily Sunni areas share this assessment. " "Hopes, Dreams, and Fears When Gallup asked Iraqis to articulate their hopes for the future, a basic desire for security easily topped the list of replies. Nearly half (47%) of the 3,444 Iraqis interviewed volunteered a desire for stability and security as their greatest dream. This percentage is significantly larger than the 20% who hope that the country will develop to a standard equivalent of that in other advanced countries, or the 16% who wish for a democratic form of government. Somewhat smaller percentages of Iraqis referred to their desire for coalition forces to leave Iraq (13%) , for the country to be free, sovereign, and independent (12%), and for the future to be one of unity and cooperation between the country's sectarian and ethnic groups (9%)." That hardly sounds like a people whom are glib about their collective security. Quote:
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#596 | |||
Cooling Savant
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: BC, Canada
Posts: 313
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And I thought Iraq had to be shoved into chaos on behalf of Iraqis who secretly crave democracy, silly me. ![]() But we could play with these statistics 'till Armageddon, especially as neither of us know the true phrasing or structure of the surveys, and then we're reading someone's selective interpretation of the results. I remember there was a much cited survey last year that had asked Iraqis if they felt more secure then or at the end of March (while Saddam's regime was still in power). Of course most Iraqis would think mainly of the bombing, power outages, etc. when recalling the end of March, but their answer was taken to mean relief the Ba'ath party had been abolished by the Coalition Authority. Likewise you could get sharply different answers from me by asking if I approve of "the Saddam regime", or, "Iraq's Ba'ath party", yet most westerners would think that the same question. I'm confident the vast majority of Iraqis would like the occupiers to start leaving today. Pollsters can insert all sorts of conditions in that like, "even if you blow up?", "even if you starve?", or "even if that makes everything worse?" and so forth, but the basic sentiment is still true, I believe. For some reasons you believe most Iraqis want US troops there. They have to like it. I think that vision will grow eventually ridiculous (as have previous visions of Iraq), but by then we'll have yet another "unforeseeable" crisis unfolding, so Iraqi consent of US military/political intervention can be a moot point and you may avoid embarrassment. Quote:
Let's take a rude gauge of controversy: Google "Yanukovych election fraud" = 72,100 results Google "Bush election fraud" = 1,300,000 results Now, even admitting some pages in the second search happen to mention Bush but are really about Yanukovych, we still have 1,227,900 pages with just "Bush" and "election fraud" to account for. That's a lot of people behind all those unique pages. I'm surprised by the volume. We haven't even considered like-minded readership. You sure it's "not disputed"? My own opinion is that election fraud in the US is unthinkable. I don't question the fact of your President winning a second term. Quote:
Yanukovych won with a better margin than Bush. Now Yanukovych is saying there should be new elections, but neither he nor Yushenko should run in them. He says neither can unify the country, and the unity of Ukraine is paramount. Contrast Bush saying that Americans "stand behind" him, "determined", even that they "embrace (his) point of view", and so on. Again, just imagine Yanukovych declaring Ukrainians stand behind him while riot police and road blocks break the protester's siege of government buildings. Imagine Bush offering to step down because his election is too divisive. There can be no equivalence in your mind? Why not? |
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#597 | |||||
Cooling Savant
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Surf City USA
Posts: 433
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Click and Enjoy the Crow |
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#598 | ||||
Cooling Savant
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: BC, Canada
Posts: 313
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Now, I believe that a strong majority of Iraqis today, if asked directly with no conditions attached (uncoerced), if they'd like US forces to leave, would say, "yes". You could argue that meaningless in the absence of other conditions. I'm confident that so long as US forces remain in Iraq there will somehow always be conditions to justify continued occupation. We'll see different causes behind those conditions. I'll blame US interventions, call it a self-fulfilling truth; you'll blame Iraqis or other foreigners, say it just happens. I think that you could eventually take the position that Iraqis didn't really want US intervention, but that this is irrelevant because we have to deal with present realities. I believe that this context of insecurity in Iraq a direct result of US occupation. For now, you appear to be arguing that Iraqis, all coercion aside, don't really mind US forces in their country. Now your turn to be honest. Quote:
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"The OSCE observers were able to assess aspects of the pre-election environment and were granted access to polling stations in a number of states, sometimes only in specific counties. The OSCE believes that in order to further enhance transparency and to meet U.S. international commitments, Congress and individual states should consider introducing legal provisions allowing unimpeded access for international observers invited by the U.S. government." |
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#599 | |||||
Cooling Savant
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Surf City USA
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WASHINGTON, D.C., 4 November 2004 - The 2 November elections in the United States were conducted in an environment that reflects a longstanding democratic tradition, including institutions governed by rule of law, free and professional media and an active civil society involved in all aspects of the election process. |
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#600 | ||||||
Cooling Savant
Join Date: Jan 2003
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Confirm my link (USATODAY.COM) Now let's clear this up. I'd said earlier that, according to this poll, 61% of Iraqis wanted US forces to leave immediately. That number comes from question G8: "Should US/British forces leave immediately (next few months) or stay longer?" Baghdad Immediately 75% Stay longer 21% Shi’ite areas Immediately 61% Stay longer 30% []Sunni areas[/i] Immediately 65% Stay longer 27% Kurdish areas Immediately 3% Stay longer 96% Total Immediately 57% Stay longer 36% OK? Now, your "13% said that they want American Troops out…hardly a majority" plainly doesn't come from this part of the survey. But it is from the same survey: the unscripted portion where "Gallup asked Iraqis to articulate", in other words to freely offer their opinions, as they came to mind. 13% repeated or elaborated on their answer "leave immediately" to question G8. All we can draw from this 13% is that they feel just answering "leave immediately" isn't enough. So according to Gallup we had a majority wanting US/British forces to leave immediately (within a few months), and we can guess many of the others wanted US/British forces to have left some time after that. OK? Quote:
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![]() I repeat my position: the elections were not rigged. There was no electoral fraud. I'll back my statement that there is controversy about the elections. Here's what the OSCE Preliminary Report had to say: "Allegations of electoral fraud and voter suppression, primarily among minorities, were widely reported and presented to the EOM in the pre-election period. The EOM is concerned that the widespread nature of these allegations may undermine confidence in the electoral process." I'll also back my statement that international observers were denied the access they wanted. "OSCE observers were granted access to polling stations in a number of states. Access was sometimes limited to specific counties or to specific polling stations within a particular county. In those places where access was granted, OSCE observers noted that the key elements of HAVA were being implemented. There were, however, a number of concerns." These are just facts you've challenged. I'm not denying the Republican party should be in power for the next four years. |
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